Coupled Systems I: Florida & Jevons' Paradox

Humans and landscapes were interacting linearly, without the formation of feedback loops that would operate on regional or global scales. Humans are now a geomorphic force, and geometric human settlements erase natural shapes. From this manifests a dynamic coupled human-landscape system that is both hierarchal and complex. Landscape dynamics are dominated by water, sediment and biological routing, moderated by oceanic, atmospheric and fluvial processes. Human dynamics are dominated by profit-maximizing market forces and political action dictated by the estimated economic effect. In the Netherlands, the human system is less strongly coupled to the landscape system because it has mitigated its natural hazards.

Complexity refers to the simultaneous presence of simple and complicated behaviours. 

Human impact on landscape processes

• Permanent loss of sediment from landscape modification
• Increased global temperatures 
• Alterations to atmospheric gas concentrations (chiefly carbon dioxide and methane)
• Species loss/extinctions 
• Alterations to oceanic system dynamics

 Human/landscape coupling 

• Levees along the Mississippi leading to wetland loss, reducing dampening effect
• Overfishing of cod in the N. Atlantic leaading to the collapse of fish economics. 
• Increased damage from wildfires has increased fire protection and response practices. 

Emergent behaviour: The behaviours which emerge as a consequence of the coupling between humans and landscape systems, and would not be exhibited by one system or the other on its own. It is a fundamental property of all hierarchal systems. 

Non-linearity describes the dynamics that indicate strong two-way coupling between elements, and the transformative, sharply transitional interactions between. Dissipation meanwhile describes an irreversible behaviour that reduces differences in space or time e.g. hillslope creep. Landscapes are self-organising. 

Human system hierarchy

Neuron-level processes ----- stream of consciousness ------ feelings ----- communication/language ------ emotions ---- moods ---- rational thought/analysis ---- personality --- patterns of economic relations ---- beliefs ---- world view ---- laws ---- customs. 

The human system hierarchy is much more complex than landscape systems (pattern characteristics --- boundaries of transition zones --- morphology---grains/fluid parcels). Therefore, it has a greater potential for diverse and complex dymamics. 

The prediction of system dymamics can be formulated, but only if they are approached as multi-dimensional problems as opposed to individual conditions. 

Human impact strength is enhanced at economic and political levels; the mechanisms concentrating wealth permit the continuous application of resources not possible for average individuals/societies. Resource investment leads to further wealth concentration (profit) allowing more focused resource application - a positive feedback loop described as Jevons' paradox. 

Jevons' Paradox example: Beach replenishment enhances property value; profit is increased, facilitating further protection/replenishment activities. With the price of sand increasing, how long will the feedback loop be maintained before the system collapses?

Population density, housing development and property values in coastal counties along Florida state are all increasing with the rise in hazard from storm impacts. The homes of today are 60% larger than in 1973. Paradoxically, it is seen that investment in hazard protection fuels further development. Coastal tourism and tax revenue from coastal properties are fundamental to the economy. 

Backfire: Rebound and backfire is derived from Jevons' Paradox, and is a problem where a more efficient use of a resource spurs an increase in demand and consumption. Increased consumption thereby erases the gains achieved from improving efficiency. Energy efficiency is termed 'the fifth fuel.' Consider the increase in refrigeration unit purchases as they became more efficient.

Jevons' Paradox: The more efficient we become, the more people can be sustained; the more people we can sustain, the more energy we consume. There is a choice between brief greatness and prolonged mediocrity. 

Landscape processes and the human system broken down

The most obvious connection between the landscape and economic system is the influence of natural events such as hurricanes on economic structures or human settlements. The economic system impacts the landscape system as structures are built e.g. increasing run off, albedo. In the coupled system, landscape processes affect the economic system is directly impacted by changing construction costs, influencing market behaviour and directly changing the shape and character of the land upon which economic processes occur. 

The political system marshals resources and forces changes in the landscape system according to economic criteria, and most decisions are made by political agents. Political activity alters landscape processes in the coupled system by changing the shape and character of the land to create a nonlinear system with different hierarchial levels. 

A Prediction System

New Orleans has strongly coupled interactions between economic development, gemorphology, flooding and levee construction. Its coupling can be modelled through the landscape parameters or economic factors. This is the first step towards a prediction system for the future of the Earth's surface. With this, new emergent behaviours may be predicted, and investigations may be conducted regarding the impact of free-will decision-making processes on the landscape. 

Potential Problems

Markets are dominated by decision-making based on the profit margin, however in the models used to incorporate this the potential cultural changes that may well manifest from wide-spread concern regarding changes to our environment are not taken in to account. There might also be resistance to market forces e.g. from indigenous groups.  

It might be said that these models do, by and large, point out the obvious. Residents of New Orleans for example will be well aware of the relationship between storm surges, levees and the Hinterland; they will know the long-term issues of such a system. So why do they still reside there, and not alter their ways of approaching storm/flood management? Clearly there are factors regulating this behaviour that is not categorically understood or easy to influence. 

Perception of hazard and risk underestimate or discount conditions because management strategies of hazards such as beach nourishment reduce/masks the seen impact of coastal hazards, without actualy changing the driving natural forces. Federal subsidies and flood insurance masks the true cost in the economic system of such hazards. 

The human-landscape system models may have to account for challenges, modification and alternatives to the market system, as the human hierarchical system evolves and changes with the landscape. 

The human system is complex; the landscape system is complex. The models will always have to be improved. People make decisions for a variety of reasons; perhaps their incentives are market-driven; altruistic; cultural; a case of trust in certain political embodiments. It remains to be seen whether the global perception that humans and the environment are connected can be refined, and whether a drive for a change/improvement in management may be achieved.