Monday 4 April 2016

The Tourism Cycle: A boom and bust cycle

Butler's Tourism Area Life Cycle model (TALC) presents the successive evolution of tourist areas over time, the changes in number of tourists visiting the area, and the quality of the area as a honeypot site. It is very unlikely that a tourism area is likely to be both environmentally friendly and economically viable, and Butler surmises that most sites are unfavourable on the environment, and, increasingly, not economically favourable either.

While there are different methods of presenting the tourism cycle and describing the evolution of a site, generally they all stipulate that exploration and public involvement first increases rapidly, before it begins to stagnate. At this point, several things could happen; reinvestment could be installed in to the area, and it will be rejuvenated; thus will tourism increase. An area may be simply consolidated, and there is a drawn region in the tourism cycle described as 'the critical range of elements of capacity.' Within this region, a tourism area will not decline as such, but will be maintained in its current state. If the area is not maintained, it will rapidly decline and lose a high amount of tourism focus.

The physical processes that occur in tourist regions are not typical of tourists or landscapes, but are a product of coupled systems. 

It is thought that under no practical circumstances would a tourism area ever be environmentally favourable on a region, regardless of whether it was economically favourable or not. This is because at the most basic level, humans settling in an area, urbanising it, altering the morphodynamics, hydrological system and the natural hierarchy, is ultimately impacting what was previously a natural stable state. However, it might be said that if a tourism area was to be created as a function of land regeneration, that may for instance have been fully degraded sites, then perhaps benefits may arise.

Further, if the tourism sector was more directly linked towards area regeneration and maintenance, then perhaps it would be possible to use the publicity (if awareness/education was encouraged) and subsequent funds to improve the vulnerability of an area. Not all tourism areas will follow the conceptual model Butler presents any where near as clearly as others; consider the establishment of the 'instant resort' - Cancun, Mexico.

Time scales

Daily changes in tourism revenue will not drive shoreline manipulations to increase tourism revenue and protect from coastal hazards. Similarly, rip currents and other fast nearshore hydrodynamics will not affect the patterns and fluctuations of tourism. 
Longer landscape evolution processes are also not affected by engineering; further, long-term economic trends do not directly drive alterations to the coast. 

Intermediate time scale processes are more influential. Consider the links between barrier-island processes and the initiation/growth of tourist resorts. There are direct links between governance and planning and the estimated probability of natural hazards occurring. Basically, human-landscape coupling is the strongest where natural physical processes significantly affect/render human landscapes vulnerable to changes and damage. These processes generally occur over intermediate timescales, from years to decades. Enough time to drive market investment in protection structures and respond to changes, but not enough time to generally do so efficiently. Landscape processes can directly cause loss and change construction costs, but also indirectly adversely affect the economy by changing human behaviour, feedback and response, altering insurance levels and market values. Econ/political activity directly changes landscape processes by altering the shapes of land and structures upon which natural processes operate.

Boom/bust cycles 

Spatial patterns will develop as the localising nature of protected resorts combines with continuous tourist demand and the eventual requirement of island migration and longshore sediment. This coupling is thought to produce high-frequency responses to storms and SLR, as well as boom/bust cycles. 

The dynamics of boom/bust cycles evolve over longer time frames and are a key characteristic of today's capitalist economies. It describes the periodic expansion and contraction of the economy, fluctuating job availability, productivity and market value. 

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